Turborilla CEO John Wright: Operationalizing CTV and Incrementality for App Growth

Why growth teams need CTV, smarter experimentation, and fewer false certainties

Disclaimer: The opinions represented here are those of the individual and do not necessarily represent those of their current or former employer.

In the current mobile landscape, incrementality has shifted from a buzzword to a survival metric. As privacy changes like ATT continue to cloud traditional tracking and user acquisition costs climb, simply knowing a user installed your app isn't enough. You have to know if your marketing caused it. But while most teams understand the theory, very few have mastered the daily operations of measuring true lift. To understand how to move from theory to practice, we spoke with John Wright, CEO of Turborilla. With over 250 million downloads under his belt and 15 years in the industry, John has seen the industry move from "growth at all costs" to a more disciplined, evidence-based approach.

Watch the full interview below, or read on for a selection of key takeaways.

Key Takeaways 

1. Stay agile as new channels emerge and signals degrade. Continuously refine your incrementality models for cross-channel journeys, and be willing to experiment (with a pinch of salt) when tracking isn’t perfect.
   
   
2. Bake incrementality into your marketing culture and daily operations. Define what incrementality means for your business and make it a routine part of every decision.
   
   
3. Scale user acquisition carefully by using incrementality insights to guide spend. Leverage incremental ROI data to know when to push for growth and when to pull back for efficiency.
   
   
4. Don’t panic if an incrementality test shows neutral or negative lift – treat it as valuable insight. Use so-called “failed” tests to identify non-performing spend and adjust your strategy before bigger losses occur.
   
   
5. Anchor your incrementality program in credible, independent data sources. Present results transparently (no “massaging the data”) to earn trust and make insights actionable for leadership.

Adopt New Approaches as Channels Evolve

With a decade and a half of experience, Wright understands that the mobile industry never stands still, and new channels like Connected TV (CTV) are forcing marketers to rethink attribution once again. Measuring a TV ad that leads to a mobile install is notoriously difficult, especially as identifier signals weaken. However, the teams that win aren't the ones waiting for "perfect" data; they are the ones innovating their measurement through geo-based lift tests, QR codes, or time-period correlations.

“CTV is a great example. There's dual screening – you're watching TV while on your phone. Was it really the CTV ad that got them to download the app? It's quite hard to model across different touch points. You have to take some of it with a pinch of salt. I'd like to believe if someone sees a Fortnite or Amazon Luna ad on CTV and then downloads the game, that ad impacted them. At least now you can use things like QR codes. But ultimately, I think the models need to be updated to look at multiple touch points, and everything needs some weighting or value to be fair.”

A finance app exploring CTV might run a regional incrementality test, airing ads in one city but not another. If they see a lift in sign-ups in the target city, they can roll out the campaign nationally, using QR codes to capture direct response. Over time, they can feed this data into a media mix model that assigns reasonable weight to CTV impressions. By remaining flexible and updating their approach, teams can seize the advantage of new channels early, while competitors wait on the sidelines for “perfect” measurement.

Make Incrementality a Cultural Cornerstone

As Wright sees it, incrementality can’t simply be a retrospective report you look at once a quarter; it has to be ingrained in the team’s culture. This requires a shift in mindset where every budget decision is viewed through the lens of added value. If the team doesn't have a shared definition of what "success" looks like—whether that’s incremental revenue or long-term retention—you end up chasing vanity metrics that don't actually move the needle. When incrementality becomes habitual, the question shifts from "How many installs did we get?" to "What did we gain that wouldn't have happened anyway?"

“Firstly, it comes down to putting it into the culture. Once everyone has the idea of incrementality and understands what that means, you have to define it as a business because it can be a vague term. Just saying you're looking at incrementality doesn't mean you're actually doing it. What is incrementality to you? For me, very simply, it's looking at two different things and seeing which one has that uplift. That could be incrementality when it comes to scale. That could be incrementality when it comes to user quality.”

Many top publishers make incrementality a mandatory step in their playbook. For instance, a global gaming studio might require a controlled lift test before scaling any new ad partner. This cultural discipline can save publishers from overspending on networks that deliver high volume but low incremental revenue. When everyone from analysts to the CMO embraces this mindset, the team is empowered to cut out the noise and double down on what makes a difference.

Balance Scale and Efficiency Using Incremental Insights

It is easy to equate growth with “spend more, scale faster,” but scaling blindly often leads to diminishing returns. Incrementality should be your compass for balancing aggressive growth with ROI discipline. As you increase spend, watch how metrics like cost-per-install (CPI) and ROAS change incrementally. Often, the faster you scale, the lower your incremental ROAS becomes on each additional dollar. Lift analysis reveals the tipping point where a campaign starts cannibalizing organic users or attracting lower-quality installs. Senior marketers use these insights to decide when to step on the gas—during a launch window, for example—versus when to optimize for efficiency.

“Ultimately, the quicker you scale, the more diminishing returns you'll have. CPIs go up, ROAS goes down. Depending on the life cycle of the studio and the strategy of the business, some people might be happy to have zero margin because they want to be in a high growth stage. When people talk about Dream Games or Royal Match spending a million-plus a day on UA and making two million, that's great. But behind closed doors in other studios, some companies are probably losing money. They've just raised capital, and they're thinking about their Series A, trying to promote a higher top line growth as much as possible.”

Consider the case of Product Madness and their hit title Heart of Vegas. Initially, the team optimized their retargeting efforts toward a standard Day 7 ROAS. While effective, they needed to verify that these returns represented true growth rather than organic behavior. By pivoting to an incrementality-first approach, they utilized holdout groups to measure the real lift of their campaigns. The results were decisive: the strategy didn’t just look good on paper; it drove a verified 12% increase in retention among churned players on Day 14. Armed with this proof of incremental value, the team could confidently scale their budget, knowing their spend was preventing churn rather than cannibalizing organic traffic.

Embrace “Negative” Results and Learn When to Pull Back

Not every experiment will be a winner. Senior marketers must foster a mindset that a test yielding neutral or negative lift isn’t a failure, but a lesson to learn from. Wright says a neutral result often means a channel isn’t providing value beyond what you would get organically, an insight that can save money by telling you to stop or reallocate spend. In other cases, a negative incremental result, like a retargeting campaign causing a drop in revenue compared to a control group, reveals issues like audience overlap or poor targeting. The key is to react thoughtfully to these events, incorporating findings, refining your approach, or investing elsewhere.

“Last year we decided to be a bit more aggressive on select channels, and then we saw it wasn't backing out the way we wanted. Anytime you drop CPIs, the algorithms retrain, and that can remove you from your spot in the monetization waterfall. If you go from being first impression to fourth impression, your scale goes down and your quality goes down. All of these decisions have big ramifications, and I think you need to be very careful about what you do and why, based on the motivations of the business.”

Imagine a streaming app running a costly win-back campaign. If the test shows zero incremental subscriptions compared to a holdout group, the "negative" finding is actually a win: the team can cut the campaign and save six figures. They might reinvest that budget into channels proven to drive true incremental subs, like personalized email. Similarly, if a game studio tests a cheap ad network and finds a negative revenue lift—meaning the users monetized poorly or displaced high-LTV organic users—they can pull back immediately. Being unafraid of negative outcomes allows marketers to pivot toward more fruitful opportunities.

Check out Adikteev’s incrementality playbook to see how you can measure true lift and optimize your marketing spend.

Use Credible Data and Transparent Reporting to Drive Buy-In

Even the best analysis fails if stakeholders don’t trust the numbers, so using reputable, independent measurement is non-negotiable. That’s why it’s best to rely on your Mobile Measurement Partner (MMP) or third-party analytics as the source of truth, rather than vendor-reported figures— it’s an unbiased data source that prevents debates about accuracy. But Wright says it’s equally important to promote a culture of radical transparency by sharing raw facts—good, bad, or mixed—without spin. When leadership knows they are getting the real picture, trust builds, making your recommendations to reallocate budget or double-down carry more weight.

“Firstly, it needs to come from a credible source – that's why we utilize MMPs as the backbone. You have to trust the data provided by your partners. Ultimately, it's about presenting that data in the right way. I prefer to be very critical of the analysis, and teams I've worked with understand to just give me it how it is. I don't want someone interpreting the data for me. I prefer to look at the data sets so I can make my own judgment, then have a discussion to ensure there's no miscommunication or misanalyzing of the data.”

Building this trust pays dividends when it's time to ask for a budget increase. If a UA director can show a CFO straightforward, third-party data—for instance, proving that a retargeted group spent 15% more than a control group—the conversation moves away from skepticism and toward strategy. Marketers who champion objective, unvarnished findings find it much easier to get approval for bold new experiments.

Marketing Is Evolving

Incrementality is more than a measurement tactic—it is a mindset that separates the best mobile marketers from the rest. By focusing on true incremental value, you ensure that every dollar drives sustainable growth beyond the baseline. This requires cultural commitment, a strategic balance between scale and efficiency, the courage to learn from negative results, and rock-solid data practices. Marketers who champion this approach will find themselves making smarter decisions and uncovering hidden growth opportunities.

Ready to unlock incremental growth for your app? Get in touch with Adikteev to learn how our incrementality solutions can power your marketing strategy.